Over the past few decades, China has focused on building up its military. As their manufacturing and military capabilities progress, the threat they pose in the Indo-Pacific continues to grow. This creates concerns over the stability of the region and the United States’ ability to deter its rivals.
AUKUS is a trilateral partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, signed by President Biden and currently under review by the Trump administration. The agreement was designed around two main pillars and is projected to cost between $268 and $368 billion. While the agreement comes with a steep price tag, it provides too many benefits to not be implemented.
The first pillar focuses on building and strengthening deterrence capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, an epicenter of the global economy and the site of a possible conflict with China. Specifically, Pillar 1 aids Australia with obtaining nuclear powered submarines (SSNs) which would increase their undersea capabilities by adding range, endurance, and stealth. Australia will purchase U.S. Virginia-class submarines for their Royal Navy. While the agreement is not a promise by any nation to respond to a conflict, Australia’s acquisition of SSNs would greatly reduce response time to a crisis in the Indo-Pacific—increasing deterrence. However, the production of these submarines will take time. To bridge the gap between now and the completion of Pillar 1, the U.K. and the U.S. will provide rotational presence of submarines beginning in 2027.
Pillar 2 focuses on the interoperability of advanced and shared capabilities with focus on eight main sectors: cyber, artificial intelligence, quantum, undersea technologies, hypersonic, and electronic warfare. This pillar also provides the possibility to introduce additional partners, such as France or Japan, into the agreement. However, this possibility appears unlikely to occur.
President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the AUKUS meeting in San Diego, California, March 13, 2023
With the U.S. playing a large role in this agreement by providing Australia with SSNs, it’s important to note the condition of the Defense Industrial Base (DIB)—which is actually quite worrisome. While recent investments in our military and the DIB are aimed at aiding this crisis, those investments will take time to pay off. According to Seth Jones’ report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, China is acquiring equipment and high-end weapons systems at a rate five to six times faster than the U.S. In a near-future conflict with China, the U.S. would run out of certain munitions in less than a week. This causes those in opposition to the agreement to emphasize the toll it would place on the DIB, arguing it would deplete the U.S. military. However, AUKUS could actually help revive the DIB from its death spiral.
One of the biggest problems is a lack of sufficient funding since the “procurement holiday” post-Cold War. Not only are we still relying on the military investments made in the Reagan years, but Congress has exacerbated the problem by failing to provide appropriations bills on time.
The DIB faces many challenges when it comes to being adequately prepared for a conflict. One of the biggest problems is a lack of sufficient funding since the “procurement holiday” post-Cold War. Not only are we still relying on the military investments made in the Reagan years, but Congress has exacerbated the problem by failing to provide appropriations bills on time. This forces the military to rely on continuing resolutions which only allow for spending on existing projects—meaning no innovation or modernization. This is a big problem as our equipment continues to age and gets increasingly more expensive to repair. With the uncertainty and inadequate funding that accompany new projects, there is no incentive for companies to spend time and money on research and development. This means our facilities and equipment continue to age while the next generation of our workforce sees no security in pursuing education or a career in manufacturing for the DIB.
This creates cracks in the U.S.’s most relied-upon defense policy: deterrence. While testifying in front of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, William Greenwalt, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, emphasized, “If China knows we can’t produce and sustain our military forces in a great power conflict, the chance of warfare will be that much greater.” To fix this problem, companies and the Department of Defense need an indication that investments in production won’t go to waste—this is where AUKUS comes in.
To fix this problem, companies and the Department of Defense need an indication that investments in production won’t go to waste—this is where AUKUS comes in.
The AUKUS agreement provides many benefits to the United States, and aligns with Trump’s “America First” foreign policy strategy. As outlined above, one of the biggest roadblocks for the DIB is a lack of reliability when it comes to investment in production. AUKUS provides funding and long-term demand for expertise in submarine construction. Not only is Australia purchasing the submarines, but they have also pledged to invest in the DIB to increase production capacity. In order to fulfill the promises made in the deal, U.S. shipyards are being forced to modernize, which will benefit our DIB in the long-term. Pillar 2 of the deal also increases collaboration on research and development by lowering barriers between partners and increasing cooperation. The benefits from both pillars align with Trump’s “America First” agenda by rebuilding our military-industrial complex, creating American jobs, increasing allied burden-sharing, and strengthening deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.
The benefits from both pillars align with Trump’s “America First” agenda by rebuilding our military-industrial complex, creating American jobs, increasing allied burden-sharing, and strengthening deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.
AUKUS provides the U.S. with an opportunity to not only strengthen our alliances and deter our adversaries, but to also strengthen its own weak points within the military and its industrial base.
